(First commentary after the start of Russian aggression to Ukraine on February 2022)
With the words that he had decided to undertake a military operation with the aim of the “demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine,” Putin this morning began a war that he cannot win. Moreover, he started a war that, in years to come, will prove to have been fatal for his presidency and possibly even for the future existence of the Russian Federation in its current form. He initiated the war with an argument that lacks even a trace of objectivity and is impossible to justify. He has also definitively buried his own, carefully cultivated public image of a statesman who—unlike many of his global counterparts—thinks strategically and does not make irrational moves. Indeed, this move endangers Russia much more directly than the eastward expansion of NATO in the last 30 years, which the Russian president continually references.
When I say that Russia cannot win this war, I mean, of course, in the long run, despite (most likely) short-term military victories. In the long run, it cannot win either in Ukraine (occupying the entire territory is not feasible, Russia neither has the resources for it, nor will the Ukrainian population allow it, a portion of which will turn to guerrilla warfare), or at home, because if the conflict continues and is not diplomatically confined to its current level (Crimea, Donbas), there will also be casualties on the Russian side. And young boys will once again return home in coffins, as was the case during the Chechen War and even earlier in Afghanistan. Public opinion will turn, regardless of the official propaganda. And Russia will break—economically as well, as being cut off from the international financial system and (even if only partially) from Western energy markets, it cannot survive in the long run.
Instead of a revival of the Soviet Union, a collapse will follow. And that is why a broader military attack on Ukraine, although predicted by American intelligence, is so surprising and irrational. The consequences will be long-term and significant, also for the entire of Europe. It is also the last warning that the EU must wake up from its liberal, post-bloc slumber and start building and implementing a much more ambitious common foreign and security policy. Which goes significantly beyond merely “speaking with one voice.” Because if this voice is very weak, not even declared unity helps.
—
The comment, written early in the morning on February 24th, was published in all main Slovenian media outlets, including STA, Delo, Večer, etc.
Sharing is caring!
The War Putin Cannot Win
(First commentary after the start of Russian aggression to Ukraine on February 2022)
With the words that he had decided to undertake a military operation with the aim of the “demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine,” Putin this morning began a war that he cannot win. Moreover, he started a war that, in years to come, will prove to have been fatal for his presidency and possibly even for the future existence of the Russian Federation in its current form. He initiated the war with an argument that lacks even a trace of objectivity and is impossible to justify. He has also definitively buried his own, carefully cultivated public image of a statesman who—unlike many of his global counterparts—thinks strategically and does not make irrational moves. Indeed, this move endangers Russia much more directly than the eastward expansion of NATO in the last 30 years, which the Russian president continually references.
When I say that Russia cannot win this war, I mean, of course, in the long run, despite (most likely) short-term military victories. In the long run, it cannot win either in Ukraine (occupying the entire territory is not feasible, Russia neither has the resources for it, nor will the Ukrainian population allow it, a portion of which will turn to guerrilla warfare), or at home, because if the conflict continues and is not diplomatically confined to its current level (Crimea, Donbas), there will also be casualties on the Russian side. And young boys will once again return home in coffins, as was the case during the Chechen War and even earlier in Afghanistan. Public opinion will turn, regardless of the official propaganda. And Russia will break—economically as well, as being cut off from the international financial system and (even if only partially) from Western energy markets, it cannot survive in the long run.
Instead of a revival of the Soviet Union, a collapse will follow. And that is why a broader military attack on Ukraine, although predicted by American intelligence, is so surprising and irrational. The consequences will be long-term and significant, also for the entire of Europe. It is also the last warning that the EU must wake up from its liberal, post-bloc slumber and start building and implementing a much more ambitious common foreign and security policy. Which goes significantly beyond merely “speaking with one voice.” Because if this voice is very weak, not even declared unity helps.
—
The comment, written early in the morning on February 24th, was published in all main Slovenian media outlets, including STA, Delo, Večer, etc.
Sharing is caring!